Dmitriy Lampert

On Pashinyan's Statement Regarding Armenia's Withdrawal from the CSTO Many of you likely followed yesterday's intense media coverage regarding Armenia's potential withdrawal from the CSTO. The situation is peculiar for two main reasons: 1. The initial flurry of media reports about Armenia's withdrawal from the CSTO was soon followed by numerous clarifications. Initially, reports suggested that Prime Minister Pashinyan had stated Armenia would leave the CSTO. This was compounded by an additional quote attributed to him, implying that those who created the CSTO bloc are responsible for Armenia's potential withdrawal, accusing members of planning a war against Armenia with Azerbaijan. Later, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan clarified that Prime Minister Pashinyan did not announce the beginning of the withdrawal process but merely suggested it as a future possibility. Mirzoyan further explained that Pashinyan's remarks were misunderstood, indicating that Armenia would not rejoin the CSTO if it decided to leave. Currently, Pashinyan has accused President Lukashenko of supporting Azerbaijan, leading to Armenia summoning its ambassador to Belarus for consultations. 2. The withdrawal procedure from the CSTO is ambiguous. The CSTO Charter does not clearly define the withdrawal process. Article 19 of the Collective Security Treaty states that any member can withdraw by notifying the organization six months prior. However, the domestic procedure for such a withdrawal is unclear, including whether a parliamentary decision is required or if the President can decide unilaterally. There are no precedents for withdrawal from the CSTO. While it is popularly believed that Uzbekistan left the organization, it actually suspended its membership. Overall, the prospect of Armenia's actual withdrawal from the CSTO seems vague. Armenia hosts a Russian military base and lacks other security guarantees. Additionally, Armenia continues to cooperate with CSTO countries through the EAEU and CIS.

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In a weekend of surprising developments, there’s this: a potential alliance between Armenia and Iran. Armenia has to get help from somewhere, and Iran sees an opportunity. Since Israel armed Azerbaijan with significant impact in its siege and seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh, and since Turkey/Azerbaijan aim to swallow Armenia up entirely, this would make sense for its survival. Also the so called Caspian trade route could go through Iran into Armenia and on to Europe. The US sat by as Azerbaijan gobbled up Nagorno-Karabakh and can’t be trusted to stop a broader invasion. Russia has not only abandoned Armenia but is petulantly blocking imports of its fruits and vegetables (Russia is Armenia’s largest trading partner). But it’s a big surprise. https://lnkd.in/eeQvfZXr

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Armenia has seen a stronger compression of Eurobond yields since 2022 when compared to CCA peers. This outperformance is especially impressive when assessed against its higher-rated neighbor Georgia. What is driving this? While GDP growth over the last couple of years has been among the best in the world, the latest spurt of economic activity exhibited in the last last couple of quarters has well-defined temporary features, which are already generating an appreciable slowdown in economic momentum. Much more importantly, the external position is Armenia's Achilles' heel. It is the only country in our CCA space that has been steadily hemorrhaging FX reserves over the last two years, chiefly as a result of persistent CA deficits and, more recently, net portfolio outflows presumably related to the defeat in the 3rd Karabakh War. FX reserves cover is also the worst in the region, running at below 3 months of imports of goods and services. In our view, what then explains the Eurobond's outperformance is the perception of sharply reduced political and geopolitical risk premium. Newly emerging internal challenges to PM Pashinyan have failed to materialize, and the PM looks safe enough to sail through to the 2026 Parliamentary Elections. Armenia's conscientious decision to lower its geopolitical guard vis-a-vis Azerbaijan is also delivering benefits in terms of risk perception. Put simply, we find the market's positive view on Armenia is justified, as the political/geopolitical boon is currently trumping more standard macro challenges. The much lower political and geopolitical risk is ultimately driving Armenian Eurobond outperformance, at least for the Eurobond bond maturing before the 2026 elections. Post-2026, there is likely to be a much wider distribution of risk scenarios given the significant probability that political uncertainty may then join macroeconomic vulnerability.

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https://lnkd.in/e96qKpHw In this CivilNet podcast, we provides in-depth analysis of two major developments shaping Armenia's political landscape - the government's surprise dismissal of six ministers in a single day, and the implications of Donald Trump's election victory in the United States.

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So true. Basic facts and truth can clarify things quite quickly.

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BIG PICTURE. In a quick but thorough statement, Genocide Watch brings the #Armenia|n plight in #Jerusalem and #Artsakh #NagornoKarabakh into chilling focus:

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Armenian Bar Association Targets Turkey’s SADAT With Global Magnitsky Sanctions Complaint Over War Crimes in Artsakh ➖➖➖ The ARMENIAN BAR ASSOCIATION has formally submitted a complaint under the Global Magnitsky Sanctions program with the Executive Branch of the United States government against SADAT International Defense Consultancy Construction Industry & Trade Inc. (SADAT) & its Chairman, Ali Kamil Melih Tanriverdi. This action highlights allegations of serious human rights abuses & complicity in violence & instability across conflict zones, particularly in Artsakh, Libya, and Syria. SADAT, a private paramilitary contracting firm based in Istanbul, Turkey, is accused of recruiting & deploying mercenaries to various global conflict zones while maintaining connections with known terrorist groups. The organization has reportedly recruited paid fighters, who committed numerous human rights violations in the regions where they operated, in particular during Azerbaijan’s aggression against Artsakh in 2020. Reports from the UN & other organizations indicate that SADAT has been involved in recruiting not only adults but also minors, facilitating their transport to conflict areas. SADAT’s operations are closely coordinated with Turkish military & intelligence agencies, underscoring its role in advancing Turkey’s geopolitical objectives. Evidence suggests that SADAT has been integral to the logistics of these operations, including providing weapons & coordinating with local factions, all while operating with minimal oversight. The complaint details SADAT’s predatory recruitment tactics, targeting displaced & impoverished individuals. This exploitation of vulnerable communities exacerbates the humanitarian crises in affected regions. “Our filing under the Global Magnitsky Act is a call to the United States Treasury to take these allegations seriously & to impose sanctions against those who violate human rights with impunity,” said Lucy Varpetian, Chairwoman of the Armenian Bar Association. The Armenian Bar Association’s report can be found here. For more information please email at info@ArmenianBar.org. Read the full article on ZartonkMedia.com

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Someone asked me why we center Torah in our work. Well, because: (1) Our modern lives and to-do lists don't leave us with much time to think through the big questions. Mystics, artists, rabbis, philosophers, poets, leaders (all just regular human beings like us) have been asking these questions over thousands of years. Now it's our time and our turn, as the ones who are here right now. (2) In my 15 years of experience building groups who study Torah together, nothing brings people together in close relationships faster. Yes, even people who think they don't like or can't access "Torah study." Torah allows us to go deep quickly, seeing ourselves, each other, and the world with more creativity and clarity. (3) Torah trains us in the skills we need to build a better world. We learn how to build pluralistic democracy by learning how to understand and even argue for positions we may not hold, or to engage in disagreement with civility. We use the word Torah to indicate a way of interacting with rabbinic literature that is sacred, inspiring, and unsettling at times. Reading Torah means opening myself up to the text laying a claim to my life and my behavior. It is an encounter at a deeply personal level as well, as I am studying my people’s covenantal tradition and not that of another. I can still disagree, argue, and protest what I read in rabbinic literature. And, I can creatively turn it on its head with a better reading. All these are options in Torah. It is this kind of experience which adults around the country are signing up for with IYUN (http://iyun.us). So, yes, we’re REALLY into Torah.

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Center for Truth & Justice, "Documented Conclusive Evidence of Ilham Aliyev’s Intention to Invade and Occupy Armenia,” 4/9/2024, https://lnkd.in/ezcTNbgw "The following catalogues represent evidence collected by our team regarding Ilham Aliyev’s intentions to invade and occupy Armenia." Regarding “Western Azerbaijan” - Categories include: "Western Az” agenda; False pretenses for self-determination of 'Western Azerbaijanis' and the creation of the 'West Az republic’;  Intent to occupy & territorial claims against Armenia; Historical revisionism; Azeri propaganda;  Armenophobia; Incitement to ethnic hatred; Sham accusations against Armenia; Threats to Armenia; Bellicose statements; Intent to occupy & territorial claims against Armenia; Admitting to have occupied Armenian territory; Admitting to having created the term 'Zangezur Corridor' despite its absence in the 9 Nov agreement; Attacks on France Regarding State Owned Media - Categories included are similar.

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Today, September 27, 2024, marks four years since azerbaijan launched a large-scale military aggression against the Republic of Artsakh. During the 44 days of war, azerbaijan violated every possible norm of international humanitarian law—bombing hospitals, killing civilians, and sharing videos of brutal executions on social media. What sanctions did azerbaijan receive? Oh right, they got to sell oil to the EU and host the Formula 1 Grand Prix in baku))) How will they ever cope with such punishment? You can read more about the conflict in the article linked below: https://lnkd.in/dKn_7Qc6 Author: Davit Khachatryan

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THIS is moral clarity.

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David Friedman: A Palestinian state would be a terrorist state Former US Ambassador to Israel comments on Biden's ceasefire proposal at Arutz Sheva-Israel National News Jerusalem Conference in New York City: It's a flawed notion that there are only two opposing options. “Everyone in the Middle East understands that a Palestinian state would be a terrorist state. Even those who were hesitant about the two-state solution realized after the massacre that it is futile." Friedman added, "We need to rally voices in the US to support the extension of Jewish sovereignty over all of Judea and Samaria. This can be supported by both the right and the left, both religious and secular people. Arabs in Judea and Samaria will have better lives if sovereignty is extended. It's a win-win. We need to expand the Abraham Accords to more Gulf states, while making it clear - a two-state solution won't work." https://lnkd.in/eDXJhBuc

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Seven years ago today, the Foundation for Armenian Science and Technology (FAST) was founded with the vision of helping transform Armenia into a science-driven, innovative country by 2041, the 50th anniversary of its independence. Initially, I declined an invitation to work in Armenia, as my heart was set on my work in Africa. However, my perspective was changed by a transformative five-day trip to Armenia in February 2017. I was immediately struck by the incredible enthusiasm for the future among the people. What began as a six-month collaboration has now become a seven-year journey, and today, I am delighted to celebrate the 7th anniversary of advancing innovation at FAST. Our critical challenge was the lack of advancement in competitive science and technology, which hindered Armenia's ability to thrive in the modern world. Yet, history offered a glimmer of hope. Armenia's past demonstrated a strong scientific foundation, and we knew that the nation's inherent potential could flourish with the right ecosystem. This realization ignited my passion, which grows stronger with every passing day. Building this ecosystem at FAST is akin to cultivating fertile soil. It’s not just about planting seeds but choosing the right seeds, finding the perfect location, and, most importantly, preparing the ground. Only then can we ensure those seeds flourish. FAST has become a catalyst for significant change within Armenia and has extended its reach globally. At the core of our initiatives, FAST acts as an architect of ecosystem change, effectively bridging the gap between groundbreaking ideas and their real-world impact. The opportunities we've created and those yet to come hold immense potential. Our team's uncompromising dedication fuels my optimism. I express my deepest gratitude to everyone who has been part of this incredible journey—our visionary co-founders Noubar Afeyan, Ruben Vardanyan, Artur Alaverdyan, and Ayb Educational Foundation, incredible board members, dedicated team, ever-growing communities, invaluable supporters, partners, and friends. Together, we are shaping a brighter future for Armenian innovation. Here's to many more years of innovation!

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Secretary of State Blinken is outraged at the death of Turkish-American "activist," Aysenur Egzi Eygi, in the West Bank at the hands of the IDF. To be sure, her death is a tragedy of war, and my thoughts go out to her family as they grieve. If it was a violation of the laws of war or the rules of engagement, it should be investigated and those responsible prosecuted (as Israel has done in the past). See: https://lnkd.in/efJ5ugB3 One must also ask why she was there in the first place? Ms. Eygi was working for the International Solidarity Movement, an anti-Israel organization, which repeats the genocide blood libel (among other slurs), supports the destruction of Israel, and is pro-Hamas. Check NGO Monitor for more information. This is not activism in the spirit of the word, but support for terrorist and anti-Semitic forces. One must also ask where is Secretary Blinken's outrage at the murder of Hersh Goldberg-Polin, whose parents spoke at the Democratic Convention? Where are the demands on Hamas, Qatar, and Iran? Where are the demands to release all remaining hostages? Where is American leadership when it counts? 🟦

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LEVON TER-PETROSYAN: the tragedy of his foreign policy and the STOLEN KEY through Kremlin. Dr. Haykaz Nazlukhanyan When the war broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan , there were two camps within Armenian leadership ! First group of policy makers, under LTP leadership positioned themselves as moderates who argued for limited actions in so called internationally recognized territory of Azerbaijan in spite of the fact that Nagorbo Kharabakh has never been part of independent Azerbaijan. Second group of policy makers , under leadership of Vazgen Sargsyan , the head of army , was arguing in favor of bigger buffer zone as security guarantee ! The first group of of policy makers used to think that the actions of Armenian leadership cannot violate the charter of UN and must be loyal to its rules regarding the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan ! UN was the outcome for WWII and reflection of bipolar system ! However , after the collapse of the Soviet Union two biggest players of the world found it unfair: 1. The United States which emerged as the winner of Cold War and absolute hegemonic state or as usually described hyper power. Therefore , the most powerful nation could not share the same influence of zones with much weaker Russia. 2. China was not happy with the existing world order and found it unfair to deal with international order which did not express the reality anymore , an order which used to serve the interests of the Soviet Union and the United States. The first president of Armenia did not realize the changing nature of international order and insisted on loyalty to its rules or just hided the key for his patrons in Moscow! The change of international order does not necessarily happen overnight but the reconstruction of its map started since the first Iraq war and continued in Europe in 1990s! The second phase started from the second Iraq war and continued through Arab spring. Meanwhile China, built fortifications in South China Sea and strengthened its positions ! Russia, under Putin’s leadership tried to regain its influence and refused to become junior partner of the West ! They invaded in Georgia and Ukraine by violating all possible rules of territorial integrity ! Last, but not least , even the middle or regional powers such Turkey, Iran and Israel turned into game of reconstruction of international order at the cost of territorial integrity of Syria, , Lebanon and Iraq through conventional and non-conventional tools ! Meanwhile , Armenian leadership was not able to understand the basic rules of diplomacy and the changing nature of international relations ! Why ? Simply speaking there have not been thinkers of international relations within the leadership! You could find knowledgeable historians , mathematicians, economists, lawyers but never doctor of international relations graduated from foreign universities because Armenia couldn’t create school of international relations.

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Our hearts are broken. HELP COMBAT ANTISEMITISM: 📌 Lobbying 📌 Social Media 📌 Networking 📌 Education 📌 Stay Informed ✅ Join us in our efforts to defeat those who war against global Jewry: https://lnkd.in/dgwsPgb3

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The Impact of U.S. Leadership Change on Israel's International Trade Relations: Outlook for 2025 The recent U.S. presidential election, resulting in Donald Trump's return to the White House, is poised to significantly influence Israel's international trade landscape. This shift in American leadership will likely reshape the dynamics of U.S.-Israel relations, with potential ripple effects on Israel's broader trade partnerships. Continuity in U.S.-Israel Trade Relations The U.S.-Israel Free Trade Agreement (FTA), a cornerstone of bilateral economic ties, is expected to remain robust. This agreement has historically enjoyed bipartisan support, as evidenced by its unanimous Senate approval. The FTA has been instrumental in boosting trade volumes, with two-way trade increasing from $4.7 billion in 1985 to over $11 billion in 1995. Under Trump's leadership, this trend is likely to continue, potentially accelerating trade growth between the two nations. Potential Shifts in Regional Dynamics Trump's previous tenure was marked by the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states. This diplomatic breakthrough opened new avenues for economic cooperation in the Middle East. With Trump's return, we may see a reinvigoration of these agreements, potentially expanding Israel's trade opportunities with Gulf states and beyond. Impact on Palestinian-Israeli Economic Relations Trump's strong pro-Israel stance, exemplified by moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, may further sideline Palestinian interests. This could lead to increased economic isolation of Palestinian territories, potentially complicating Israel's trade relations with other Middle Eastern countries that sympathize with the Palestinian cause. Global Trade Implications The Trump administration's "America First" policy and its tendency towards bilateral trade agreements may influence Israel's trade strategy. Israel might need to navigate carefully between its strong U.S. ties and its other international trade partnerships, particularly with the European Union and China. Economic Outlook for 2025 By the end of 2025, we can expect: 1. Strengthened U.S.-Israel trade relations, with potential for new bilateral agreements. 2. Expanded trade opportunities with Gulf states, building on the Abraham Accords. 3. Possible tensions in trade with countries critical of U.S.-Israel alignment. 4. Increased focus on bilateral trade agreements, potentially at the expense of multilateral frameworks. Conclusion The return of Trump to the U.S. presidency signals a period of both opportunity and challenge for Israel's international trade relations. While U.S.-Israel economic ties are likely to strengthen, Israel will need to navigate carefully in a global trade environment that may become increasingly polarized. The coming months will be crucial in setting the tone for Israel's trade strategy leading up to 2025.

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EVN Report, "Armenia’s Defense Diversification Gains Steam,” by Hovhannes Nazaretyan, 7/16/2024, https://lnkd.in/eWwsrDDx "In a significant realignment, India and France, once considered unlikely partners, have emerged as Armenia’s top suppliers of military hardware over the past two years. Armenia has reportedly placed substantial orders from India for artillery pieces, including howitzers and multiple rocket launchers, alongside air defense systems and other equipment. Meanwhile, France is providing armored vehicles, radars, howitzers, and potentially, air defense systems. "Armenia has sought to expand ties with others as well. In recent months, Armenia’s Defense Ministry has reported agreements on military-technical cooperation with six countries: Greece, Czechia and Slovakia, Italy, Bulgaria, and Germany. Military-technical cooperation refers to the sale of military equipment, technology transfer, research and development (R&D), and related matters. With the ongoing move away from Russia and closer ties with the West, security ties have further deepened with the U.S. and the EU. "In March, a senior Armenian official revealed that Russia’s share in Armenia’s arms acquisitions has dropped from 96% in [before] 2020 to less than 10% since 2021. The official, Armen Grigoryan, Secretary of the Security Council, later said Armenia now has “four-five major partners” that supply weapons. Although he did not name any besides India and France, he suggested that they are “European, Western countries.” "I look at the growing list of nations engaging in defense cooperation with Armenia and explore both past and recent developments.”

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